{"id":511,"date":"2012-04-19T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2012-04-18T23:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/?p=511"},"modified":"2012-04-19T11:00:47","modified_gmt":"2012-04-18T23:00:47","slug":"all-change-or-maybe-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/?p=511","title":{"rendered":"All change (or maybe not)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>About once a week, the news media runs a story about how some fundamental aspect of life as we know it is about to change.\u00a0 Typically, the headlines lead us to believe that within a very short time \u2013 perhaps the next year or so \u2013 we will all be doing X.\u00a0 Or Y.\u00a0 Or possibly Z.<\/p>\n

For the sensation-seeking media it is fortunate that readers and viewers have short memories.\u00a0 A couple of years down the road, not one in a hundred of these predictions will have come to pass.<\/p>\n

As a young writer, I used to write copy for a leading clothing brand.\u00a0 Twice a year, an art director and I would spend a day or two at the clothier\u2019s trade showrooms.\u00a0 There we would be introduced to the next big thing in pants and shirts and sweaters and jackets.<\/p>\n

As part of our visit, we used to get a briefing from each of the divisional merchandise directors.\u00a0 These guys were gods.\u00a0 They spent half of their time travelling around the world, attending trade shows and such.\u00a0 The other half they spent wining and dining people from the major retail groups.\u00a0 If anyone knew what we were all going to be wearing in 12 months\u2019 time, it was these guys.<\/p>\n

And they did often get it right.\u00a0 But they also got it wrong from time to time.<\/p>\n

At one of the semi-annual briefings we were assured that, the following winter, everyone would be wearing a rather murky brown colour called gunstock.\u00a0 Hardly anyone did.<\/p>\n

On another occasion, we were assured that men were about to flock to business shirts with three-quarter length sleeves.\u00a0 Few (if any) did.<\/p>\n

But the really earth-shattering revelation occurred when the divisional merchandise director in charge of men\u2019s pants announced that jeans were dead.\u00a0 \u2018You \u2013 and millions of others \u2013 have purchased your last pair of jeans,\u2019 he said.<\/p>\n

Jeans \u2013 both fashion jeans and everyday jeans \u2013 had been a big part of the company\u2019s business for many years.\u00a0 But in the following season\u2019s range there would not be a single pair.\u00a0 It was a pity.\u00a0 In the year that jeans were predicted to die, men and women bought more jeans than ever before.\u00a0 (But not our client\u2019s jeans of course.)<\/p>\n

As Mark Twain once noted: \u2018The art of prophecy is very difficult \u2013 especially with respect to the future\u2019. \u00a0But can it be that hard for editors to occasionally ask themselves: Does this \u2018forecast\u2019 change seem even remotely likely?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

About once a week, the news media runs a story about how some fundamental aspect of life as we know it is about to change.\u00a0 Typically, the headlines lead us to believe that within a very short time \u2013 perhaps … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3,6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=511"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":514,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511\/revisions\/514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kiwistreet.co.nz\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}